Risk Assessment of Subsea Pipeline Lateral Stability due to Random Current Effect
Muhammad Reza Fauzi, Dr. Paramashanti, S.T, M.T.
Program Studi Teknik Kelautan
Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan ITB
1 fauzirezam@gmail.com dan 2 parama@ocean.itb.ac.id
ABSTRACT. Risk assessment is a systematic process of identification, evaluation, and estimation of the potential risks involved in a project. Risk assessment must be done in subsea pipeline project to determine the possible amount of risk that can happened during operation. In this final project, risk assessment was done to obtain the probability of on-bottom stability failure. On-bottom stability failure occurs when designed weight of the pipeline is less than its required weight. The required weight itself is affected by current velocity. Method of on bottom stability analysis used in this project is simplified stability analysis as referred to DNV RP-E305. Probability of failure (PoF) of on-bottom stability analysis can be obtained by comparing number of failure occurrences and number of total occurrences. In this project, the value of PoF is analyzed using reliability analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation Method. Consequence of failure (CoF) comes as a result of failure. List of CoF observed in this project are safety (social fatality), cost of company asset, cost of environmental asset, gas loss, and business interruption. After obtaining both PoF and CoF value, PoF and CoF will be ranked using DNV RP-F107 and company specification, respectively. Ultimately, a risk matrix can be made based on PoF and CoF Ranking.
Key Words/Phrase: on bottom stability, probability of failure, consequence of failure, risk, reliability analysis
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